Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 14:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 61.8%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd20 jan 26, 14:06 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alibaba's research team (from any of their labs) officially open-sources a music generation AI model in 2026.
- The model must be released under an open license (something like Qwen) and weights made publicly available on platforms such as Hugging Face or ModelScope.
- Resolution will be verified through official Alibaba announcements, press releases, or documentation from these platforms.
- The model must be released on or before December 31, 2026.