Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 92%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd10 feb 26, 16:14 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic release Opus 6?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if Anthropic posts an open-source or open-weights model in 2026.
- It doesn't have to be big, and it doesn't have to be new (releasing, say, Opus 3 still counts).
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 132,8K
- 24u volume
- € 100,3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 322,4K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 92% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if Anthropic posts an open-source or open-weights model in 2026.