Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 05:41 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd16 aug 26, 21:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold Marketstop model on artificial analysis is a anthropic model by the end of the month?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
KalshiOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 28, 2026
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point from August 16, 2026, through January 01, 2027 (00:00 CET), an open-weights model holds the #1 position (highest score) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard sorted by "Intelligence Index").
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Note that a model has to be open weights while holding the #1 position, if a model is proprietary on initial release only releasing weights after it's no longer occupying the #1 position it does not count
- Ties: If multiple models are tied for the #1 spot (same numerical index score), and at least one of the tied models is open weights, the market resolves to YES.
