Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.9%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
16 aug 26, 21:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 28, 2026
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point from August 16, 2026, through January 01, 2027 (00:00 CET), an open-weights model holds the #1 position (highest score) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard sorted by "Intelligence Index").
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Note that a model has to be open weights while holding the #1 position, if a model is proprietary on initial release only releasing weights after it's no longer occupying the #1 position it does not count
- Ties: If multiple models are tied for the #1 spot (same numerical index score), and at least one of the tied models is open weights, the market resolves to YES.
