Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 86.5%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 minuten geleden
24 okt 26, 21:54 UTC25 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will Moonshot AI publish Kimi K3.1 Pro's full weights on Hugging Face? (promised "by Nov 4")
Manifold MarketsWill Alibaba release any Qwen 4 model on October 29, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpen vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 30, 2026
KalshiWill an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if, by November 25, 2026, 23:59 UTC, Alibaba's Qwen team publishes downloadable model weights for any model officially named Qwen 4 (any size or tier, e.g. "Qwen4-27B", "Qwen4-Flash") on its official Hugging Face organisation, https://huggingface.co/Qwen.
- The weights must be public: anyone with a free Hugging Face account can download them, even if the repo asks you to accept a licence first.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- What doesn't count:
- API-only or chat-app-only releases (Qwen 4 Max on Alibaba Cloud / QwenCloud with no downloadable weights).
- Models named Qwen 3.x, even if Alibaba describes them as a "preview of the Qwen 4 architecture" (for example the Qwen3.8-Flash preview released on Aug 24, 2026).
