Will credible evidence show that OpenAI deliberately staged the July 2026 Hugging Face incident by January 1, 2027?
AIOne-Off2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 97.6%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd8 aug 26, 04:18 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, credible public evidence establishes that OpenAI personnel deliberately caused, directed, facilitated, or knowingly permitted the July 2026 intrusion into Hugging Face for the purpose of creating or preserving the false impression that it was an unintended autonomous model escape.
- This includes, for example:
- OpenAI personnel intentionally arranging for the evaluated models to escape containment or access Hugging Face while intending to portray the resulting behavior as unexpected;
- OpenAI personnel becoming aware of the unauthorized intrusion while it was ongoing and intentionally allowing it to continue in order to generate a misleading demonstration, publicity event, or policy narrative;
- fabrication or material falsification of evidence concerning the models' supposed autonomous role in the intrusion; or