Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030??

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 87.6% per 30 oktober 2026.

Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?

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Ja 87.6%

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Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden

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20 jul 26, 00:43 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC

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This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.

The bet was agreed publicly on X on July 18, 2026.
See my X post describing the bet.
This market resolves YES if, after the conclusion of the 2026 Fields Medal cycle and on or before December 31, 2030, the International Mathematical Union officially awards at least one Fields Medal to a human mathematician.
It resolves NO if no human mathematician is awarded a Fields Medal during that period.
The 2026 Fields Medals are explicitly excluded.