Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingAlina Chan 80%Koploper van 18 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
21
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd15 mrt 25, 21:40 UTC16 mrt 30, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Open markten
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 20,4K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 919K
- 24u volume
- € 4,2K
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,6K
- 24u volume
- € 2,6K
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 866,7K
- 24u volume
- € 1,7K
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Totaal volume
- € 611,8K
- 24u volume
- € 1,1K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst Alina Chan op 80% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 16 maart 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.