Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingVeritasium 83.2%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 22 uur geleden
Verouderd3 jan 26, 01:03 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
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FutuurWhat grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?
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PolymarketRegels
Which YouTube channels will post their first video that primarily focuses on AI Safety in 2026.
- The video must be primarily about AI Safety, Control, Alignment, Governance and associated existential/societal scale risks.
- I would include Gradual Disempowerment-style risks, AI-enabled coups, extreme power concentration and value lock in etc as long as they are clearly recognisable as such.
- It must be a full length video, not a short/promo.
- If it wouldn't feel out of place in major AIS channels/podcasts/forums/venue/training program syllabus then it counts (e.g. Rational Animations, Rob Miles, 80k, LW/EA/AlignmentForum, BlueDot, MATS etc..).
- Links, references and calls to action to relevant AI Safety orgs aren't strictly necessarily but would be a strong signal.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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