Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Other 31.7%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Other 31.7%Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 32 minuten geleden
18 jan 24, 14:27 UTC1 jan 50, 22:59 UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRegels
For the purposes of this market, I will consider countries which are members of the OSCE.
- This is meant to be a proxy of "European country", but note that it also includes several (post-Soviet) countries which are geographically in Asia.
- I will not count the US and Canada.
- ! Any changes which result directly from the current Russia-Ukraine war do not count !
- I will only count significant changes; I don't think there will be many opportunities for ambiguity, but, to give a formal criterion, the border change should affect at least 1.000 people.
- This is meant to rule out minor adjustments, e.g. to a border along a river which changes its course.