European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
1.5 ptn (24u)GeopolitiekOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope3mnd
PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
December 31 10%+1.5pt
Marktkwaliteit
57 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 35,8
Liquiditeit
€ 11,6K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitBied / Laat
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Strakke spreadReacties
13
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden
28 dec 25, 23:07 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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0%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.