Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 10:44 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingCommercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030 30.4%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd6 feb 26, 13:52 UTC31 jan 30, 23:59 UTC
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Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?
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PolymarketRegels
More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Resolution Criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise.
- Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.
- Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028.