Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNot accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 55.9%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd10 apr 26, 15:20 UTC31 dec 26, 16:19 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)
Manifold MarketsIn which journal will this paper be accepted in 2026? (Milos and Pérez)
Manifold MarketsAre naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.
- An answer resolves to Yes if the paper is accepted to be published in that journal before the end of 2026.
- (The paper does not have to be published by the end of 2026; it only needs to be accepted.)
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)?
- Manifold Markets prijst Not accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 op 56% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) afgewikkeld?
- Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.