Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2029 21.3%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
24
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd29 okt 23, 00:33 UTC5 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
0%
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsWill the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030
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Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
Each year resolves:
- YES if the USA and China were at war at any point in that year.
- NO at the end of that year otherwise.
- I won't bet.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 581,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 55,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 96,8K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)?
- Manifold Markets prijst 2029 op 21% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) afgewikkeld?
- When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) wordt naar verwachting op 5 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each year resolves: