When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
13.0 ptn (24u)AI4mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNot before 2030 68.5%+13.0ptKoploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+13.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 minuten geleden
25 mrt 24, 3:572 jan 27, 7:59
Trends
Regels
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.
Open markten
AI
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month??
- Manifold Markets prijst Not before 2030 op 69% per 21 augustus 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? afgewikkeld?
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?