When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
AI2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNot before 2030 60.6%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd25 mrt 24, 03:57 UTC2 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.