Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 83.3%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd6 apr 25, 22:23 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsTrumps Power After His Second Term?
Manifold MarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRegels
Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.
- This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
- This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
- Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.
Open markten
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695,7K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 24,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 294,7K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 54,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 291,3K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 83% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? afgewikkeld?
- Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.