Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd6 apr 25, 22:23 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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KalshiRegels
Resolves a YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has attempted to use AGI to stay in power after the end of his second term.
- This attempt must occur before January 1st 2030 in order for this question to resolve as YES.
- This market does not resolve before January 1st 2031.
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - AGI Definition: Follow the definition provided in this question.
- Minimum Compute Requirement: The attempt must involve at least 100 kWh of inference compute using an AGI-class model.
