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Trump -> Stay 81.6%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
32
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd27 jan 24, 15:17 UTC2 dec 28, 23:01 UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketTrump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
PolymarketRegels
The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025.
- The second half resolves based on the actions of the US president during their four year term of office (2025-2029).
- An attempt to leave includes any attempt to send a notice of denunciation under article 13, regardless of whether it is found to be legally valid, and regardless of whether the one year waiting period expires.
- It also includes attempts to leave without invoking that article, such as invoking a fundamental change or circumstances, a material breach, domestic law, annulment, etc. It includes any actions of the executive branch of government, plus any actions of the legislative or judicial branch that are at the direction of the US President.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO
Open markten
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO?
- Manifold Markets prijst Trump -> Stay op 82% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO afgewikkeld?
- Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO wordt naar verwachting op 2 december 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The first half resolves based on the US president after inauguration day 2025.