Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77.4%
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4
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
22 sep 26, 14:32 UTC28 okt 26, 12:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?
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Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA?
Manifold MarketsWill PolicyEngine publish its UK Autumn Budget analysis by 07:00 GMT on 29 Oct?
Manifold MarketsCPI in September
KalshiAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
YES if the Budget announces a cash cut to any working-age benefit rate, or an April 2027 uprating below September 2026 CPI for any working-age benefit.
- Changes to eligibility or assessments alone resolve NO.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.