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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd30 sep 22, 22:16 UTC2 jan 50, 04:59 UTC
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This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurBank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRegels
This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
- Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.
- Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference in opportunity cost between a 1-month investment and a 1-year investment, but there actually seems to be only a tiny difference in opportunity cost between a 1-year investment and a 10-year investment.
- (Assuming it's a small part of your portfolio so it doesn't contribute much to the loan cap).
- This is because the vast majority of your opportunity cost is incurred in the first few months - with 2% of your investment being loaned back to you every day, by 365 days less than 0.01% of your investment is still locked up in the market.
- There's another interesting consideration which is how much the long time frame affects questions like whether you and/or Manifold will still be around, etc. (Note that even if I am hit by a bus, Manifold admins have stated and shown that they usually will resolve popular markets eventually if the author is not responsive.)
Open markten
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 34,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,6 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Totaal volume
- € 3,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 45,5K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Totaal volume
- € 997K
- 24u volume
- € 41,2K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 99% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) afgewikkeld?
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.