Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 99%
Voorspellers
21
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd24 jun 26, 16:08 UTC30 sep 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before September 1, 2026?
ForecastExRegels
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- This uses Metaculus rules.
- September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 978,6K
- 24u volume
- € 379,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 248,1K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 99% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] afgewikkeld?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- Waar wordt Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket.