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Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
9 okt 25, 23:03 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
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PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
PolymarketMajor company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
Open markten
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 125,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 156,3K
- 24u volume
- € 26,1K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 75% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B. afgewikkeld?
- SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B. wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B. afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.