Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.9%
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49
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd19 apr 26, 02:14 UTC7 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI Agent end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketAt the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Manifold MarketsRegels
In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence:
- The incident occurs in 2026.
- The company has a market cap (by stock price if public, by valuation of latest round if private) over $10 billion prior to the incident.
- The incident consists of damage inflicted by an AI agent which was intentionally activated by company insiders, but was not intended to damage the company.
- For example, a Claude Code instance that was intended to respond to customer service questions ends up irrecoverably deleting an important database.
- It doesn't matter if the agent framework is a public product or an internal company product.
Open markten
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 7 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence: