Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91.8%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
4 okt 26, 16:00 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Manifold MarketsWill the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dancing Plague return before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if there are more than 1,000 officially confirmed or highly suspected cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) linked to the October 2026 Irkutsk outbreak in Russia.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Timeframe: The cutoff date for counting cases is December 31, 2027, or one full month after the WHO or local agencies declare the potential outbreak is no longer a concern without retraction.
- Definition of Cases: Cases must be officially confirmed or classified as suspected by public health agencies, originating from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute incident.
- Sources of Truth: The primary sources of truth will be official updates from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) or the World Health Organization (WHO).
