Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 74.4%
Voorspellers
34
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
9 jan 26, 15:05 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years?
Manifold MarketsUS x Cuba economic deal by which date?
PolymarketUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?
PolymarketUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketWill the FCDO recommend against nonessential travel to all parts of Cuba in 2027?
Manifold MarketsFree Elections in Cuba before the end of 2027
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):
- 1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.
- Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).
- Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.
- A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.