Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
GeopolitiekOne-OffWetenschapSociety & CultureManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 57%
Voorspellers
95
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd15 jan 23, 08:44 UTC1 jan 60, 08:00 UTC
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An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.
- This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060.
- (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.
- If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:
- Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.
- and other popular science resources tended to agree.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 57% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] afgewikkeld?
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2060 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.