In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
WetenschapTech4jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNot demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
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12
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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7d wijziging
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Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd7 jan 26, 14:44 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
