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Helped with >60% confidence 60.8%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd30 mrt 23, 02:50 UTC1 jan 31, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRegels
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
- 90% chance of resolving to market probs; 10% chance (through RNG), I reach out to folks and look to average the opinions of a sample of AI x-risk ~macrostrategy folks (aiming for ~30% from frontier lab alignment and governance teams; ~15% each for relevant GovAI + Rethink Priorities + Open Philanthropy researchers; ~12.5% for each of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Buck Shlegris).
- Will make a good faith effort to iterate on resolution criteria in response to feedback during first week.
- Mar 30, 8:41am: In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed AI x-risk chances? → In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 87,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 228,5K
- 24u volume
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 239,3K
- 24u volume
- € 53,3K
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
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- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances??
- Manifold Markets prijst Helped with >60% confidence op 61% per 20 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? afgewikkeld?
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/