Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 88%
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd16 mei 25, 19:23 UTC30 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions CAIS Statement on AI Risk in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text which Pope Francis cites the famous Dartmouth proposal: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Open markten
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 267,3K
- 24u volume
- € 95,6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,1 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 272K
- 24u volume
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211,1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 88% per 20 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 30 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria