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Vertraagd6 mei 26, 23:11 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
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FutuurWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
- Resolves NO if the regime falls by Dec 31, 2027 AND consensus attributes the proximate trigger to internal causes alone: domestic protest, internal succession dispute, or economic collapse without external action.
- Resolves N/A if the regime does not fall by Dec 31, 2027 (parent question resolves NO).
- “Proximate trigger” = the precipitating event in the final 30 days before the regime’s loss of sovereign authority.
- Background pressure (sanctions in place for years, ongoing protests, etc.) does not count as the trigger unless it sharply escalates in that final window.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 363K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 245,5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 62,8 mln.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 50% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? afgewikkeld?
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.