If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
GeopolitiekAIWeatherManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling1687 K (melting point of silicon) 26.6%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
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Verouderd22 apr 24, 14:34 UTC1 jan 00, 23:59 UTC
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Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.
- Survival in this case means the resulting computer can resume running afterwards without outside intervention, at a level that still qualifies as an ASI, even if performance is degraded relative to before.
- The hardware can include any armour/insulation layers needed, not just the computronium itself.
- Other potentially relevant temperatures for context:
- 0 C = 273 K (melting point of water ice)
- 100 C = 373 K (boiling point of water)
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- Manifold Markets prijst 1687 K (melting point of silicon) op 27% per 8 september 2026.
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- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each option resolves YES if, within a year of artificial superintelligence (ASI) being created (and not killing us all), it is able to create computer hardware that can run the ASI itself and theoretically be able to survive these temperatures being continuously applied to the entire external surface for an arbitrary duration.