Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 88%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
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26
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd3 apr 26, 02:11 UTC1 jan 27, 05:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
How many problems written by me will be on the 2027 OTIS Mock AIME
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
https://artofproblemsolving.com/community/c5h3808234_mock_jmo
- Resolves to the number of distinct problems of the "JMO mock" (which was an april fools joke btw) above that will have at least one 7 point solution submitted to me by December 31st, 2026.
- Any submission is acceptable, including submissions that were not done in time conditions or by someone who would normally be ineligible for any olympiad (eg, someone who is >18 years old).
- Groupsolving is also permitted.
- However, me submitting a solution to my own problem does not count.
- I think MOHS predictions are around 30 45 50 or so, but may be wrong.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst 2 op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026 afgewikkeld?
- How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://artofproblemsolving.com/community/c5h3808234_mock_jmo