Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge NOT being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?
EconomieOne-Off19j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 54.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Vertraagd26 okt 23, 02:13 UTC1 jan 46, 04:59 UTC
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If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1.
- I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole.
- If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment.
- If bridge construction is started (that market resolves YES) I will resolve N/A.
