Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GeopolitiekOne-OffAITech7j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling6 to 24 months 36%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
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6
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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7d wijziging
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Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
17 aug 26, 22:54 UTC31 dec 33, 23:59 UTC
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uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
