Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
GeopolitiekOne-OffAITech7jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling6 to 24 months 36%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+2.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd17 aug 26, 22:54 UTC31 dec 33, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training??
- Manifold Markets prijst 6 to 24 months op 36% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? afgewikkeld?
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2033 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/