Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling18h - 20h 30.8%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd30 mei 26, 18:15 UTC1 nov 26, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 4.8 model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 4.8.x variants count for the purpose of this market. 4.7 or earlier would not count.
- Opus 5 or later would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
