Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 12:56 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling>=12h 89.2%+0.9ptKoploper van 15 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
34
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+0.4 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd8 aug 25, 23:05 UTC30 okt 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
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This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- @gZsNQCnsuh (this market)