Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 19 okt 2026, 14:10 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
2035 69.7%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd16 okt 25, 14:41 UTC2 jan 35, 03:04 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be developed 5+ years after AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Manifold Markets10 years before AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will still be less mainstream than global warming was in 2015
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegels
A new highly-detailed operationalization of AGI has been proposed by Hendrycks et al. based on the standard that "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult" (www.agidefinition.ai/).
- Their definition is inspired by Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory and calculate a model’s “AGI Score” as a composite of ten equally-weighted cognitive categories.
- GPT-4 is judged to score 27% according to the definition, and GPT-5 is scored at 58%.
- This market resolves YES for all years that lie AFTER the first date when an AI system, with an AGI Score eventually judged to be above 95%, is deployed and accessible to customers external to the AI developer for commercial or consumer purposes.
- The score would either need to be judged by the authors, or by a third party in a manner credibly commensurate with the original evaluations of GPT-4 and GPT-5.
- The score would need to be announced within 6 months of model release.