Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2060 75%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
35
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd9 dec 23, 10:29 UTC1 jan 60, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiRegels
Each date resolves YES if Malaria has been declared eradicated by the WHO (or an equivalent declaration by an appropriate organization of similar status if N/A) before Jan 1st of that year.
- With regards to ambiguity of resolution my intent with this market is: "the time at which there has been a period of no recent Malaria deaths and a reasonable expectation of no further deaths in future, as declared by an authoritative organisation" and I will seek the most objective way of defining that.
- The WHO's declaration of Smallpox eradication in 1980 would be analogous.
Open markten
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 35,6K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Totaal volume
- € 83,5K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 864,2K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 915,8K
- 24u volume
- € 1,5K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Totaal volume
- € 4,2K
- 24u volume
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- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
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- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor By when will Malaria be Eradicated??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2060 op 75% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt By when will Malaria be Eradicated? afgewikkeld?
- By when will Malaria be Eradicated? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2060 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt By when will Malaria be Eradicated? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Each date resolves YES if Malaria has been declared eradicated by the WHO (or an equivalent declaration by an appropriate organization of similar status if N/A) before Jan 1st of that year.