Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 59%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd1 aug 26, 16:23 UTC31 dec 50, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
Manifold MarketsWill the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRegels
Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a "cure for aging."
- +20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.
- Animal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).
- If longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is "cured," resolution follows expert/public consensus.
- Aim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.
- Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.
