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Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 23:51 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd24 nov 22, 13:39 UTC31 dec 50, 23:59 UTC
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By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
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KalshiRegels
Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a "cure for aging."
- +20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.
- Animal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).
- If longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is "cured," resolution follows expert/public consensus.
- Aim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.
- Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.
