Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 54.3%
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 23 minuten geleden
29 jun 25, 09:17 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When, where or how will Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 start before gta6?
Manifold MarketsMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRegels
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2030 at 11:59 PM UTC, there is a publicly confirmed act of terrorism in which biological weapons are intentionally used or deployed by either a non-state actor (such as a terrorist group or extremist cell) or a state actor engaged in a terroristic or covert operation, in order to:
- Cause death or illness among civilians,
- Incite widespread fear, panic, or political destabilization,
- Coerce or blackmail governments or populations,
- Disrupt critical infrastructure or agriculture.
- Importantly, conventional wartime use of bioweapons between military forces or in declared armed conflict does NOT count.