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  1. Voorspellingsmarkten
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

One-OffTrade PolicyPolitiekUS Politics6mnd
KalshiKalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Before 2027
Before 2027 10%
Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit

44 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 47,3

Liquiditeit

€ 8,4K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

10.0% / 11.0%

Spread

10.0%

Brede spread
Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden

11 dec 25, 22:001 jan 27, 4:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Gekozen uitkomst

Before 202710%

Regels

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macrogevoelige Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,613.02+2.07%EthereumETH$1,648.07+1.25%SolanaSOL$64.97+1.33%

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Manifold Markets

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

€ 0
~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026: 15%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actief in deze onderwerpen

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Regels

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue.
  • A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement.
  • The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party.
  • For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
  • If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.