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  3. Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

3.0% (24u)One-OffPolitiekVerkiezingUS Politics10mnd
KalshiKalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Karen Bass, 4-8% 99%+3.0%
Koploper van 13 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit

79 / 100

Hoge kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 889,4

Liquiditeit

€ 2,5K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Strakke spread
Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden

27 apr 26, 19:0028 apr 27, 14:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Karen Bass, 4-8%99%

Regels

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Regels

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.