KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Q1 2026 1%-0.1ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
60 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 10
Liquiditeit
€ 154,3K
Hoge liquiditeitSpread
2.7 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden
19 mrt 25, 14:00 UTC31 dec 26, 15:00 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:NBER
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Open markten
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 97,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 4,8 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 702,5K
- 24u volume
- € 91K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 400K
- 24u volume
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 34,5K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,3K
- 24u volume
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 4,9K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Gerelateerde crypto's
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi prijst Q1 2026 op 1% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will the next US recession start? afgewikkeld?
- When will the next US recession start? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will the next US recession start? afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.