When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada?
FedOne-OffHandelsbeleidPolitiekAmerikaanse politiek2mnd
KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereistGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitGeen handelsactiviteit
Gegevens van 24 okt 2026, 17:21 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Middenprijs van geselecteerd orderboek
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
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Opgeslagen prijsBefore Jan 1, 2027 50%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
24 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
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Open interest
US$ 0
Open interest onbekendBied / Laat
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Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 minuten geleden
1 okt 26, 19:15 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Grafiek en wijzigingen tonen opgeslagen historische kansen, niet het geselecteerde actuele orderboek.
Trends
Geselecteerde rij: middenprijs van het orderboek. Andere rijen: opgeslagen, mogelijk genormaliseerde referenties; wijzigingen over 24 uur gebruiken opgeslagen historie.
Voorwaarden van het handelsplatform
Bron: Kalshi
Deze voorwaarden zijn ter informatie; voor gesimuleerd handelen bij CoinRithm gelden eigen regels.
- Vervroegde sluiting:
- Ja
- Afwikkelingstermijn:
- 30m (ter informatie)
Marktdiepte · Before Jan 1, 2027
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Macrogevoelige Assets
Regels
If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from the White House or the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The market resolves on signing or publication of the qualifying instrument, not on its effective date. Counts as Yes: A flat rate cut on all or any defined subset of covered Canadian aluminum articles, including reinstatement of the August 2026 framework at 25% A tariff-rate quota under which in-quota Canadian aluminum enters below 50% A country exemption or North American metals arrangement that lowers or removes the duty on Canadian aluminum Does NOT count: The July 20, 2026 primary-aluminum onshoring incentive (approved firms importing at half the rate) or any expansion of it Commerce's investment-commitment program allowing individual Canadian or Mexican producers to apply for a 25% rate Individual importer exclusions under the Commerce exclusion process Changes to derivative aluminum products only, with the base article rate unchanged Changes to US-content deductions or smelt-and-cast rules that leave the headline rate at 50% Court rulings enjoining or vacating the tariff Framework agreements, announcements, or press statements without a signed legal instrument
Regels per uitkomst
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If the President signs a proclamation or executive order, or the Department of Commerce or U.S. Customs and Border Protection publishes a Federal Register notice, that reduces the generally applicable ad valorem Section 232 duty rate on aluminum articles (as defined in Proclamation 9704, as amended) that are products of Canada below 50% after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
