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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopolitica18g
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 99%
Qualita del mercato

100 / 100

Alta qualità
Volume 24h

26K €

Liquidità

163,6K €

Alta liquidità
Bid / Ask

98.5% / 98.6%

Spread

0.1%

Spread stretto
Variazione 7g

+0.4%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 minuti fa

13 gen 26, 21:1730 giu 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes99%

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Mercati Correlati

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

4,5 Mln €
December 31: 68%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

1,3 Mln €
July 31: 56%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

839,6K €
June 30: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?

4,9K €
Sì: 1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4,6K €
Sì: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

1,9K €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,689.27+2.30%EthereumETH$1,651.80+1.64%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.64%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.72%XRPXRP$1.12+0.36%BNBBNB$595.41+1.71%

Notizie Correlate

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsPentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskBitcoin recedes to $63,000 as Iran-Israel trade strikes and Korean stocks crashCoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.News

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
  • This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
  • Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.