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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

3.1% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticaMiddle East
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
July 31
July 31 56%-7.0%
In testa tra 17 esiti
Qualita del mercato

89 / 100

Alta qualità
Volume 24h

1,2 Mln €

Liquidità

329,7K €

Alta liquidità
Bid / Ask

5.3% / 5.5%

Spread

3.8%

Spread moderato
Variazione 7g

-16.6%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 4 minuti fa

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
May 28
May 28
0%
May 27
May 27
0%

Esito scelto

July 3156%

Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
  • A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:
  • Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.
  • Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.

Mercati Correlati

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

4,5 Mln €
December 31: 68%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

861,6K €
June 30: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

644,4K €
Sì: 2%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4,6K €
Sì: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

1,9K €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

764,8 €
Before July: 8%KalshiKALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,928.12+2.36%EthereumETH$1,659.82+1.76%SolanaSOL$65.29+1.60%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.50%XRPXRP$1.12+0.50%BNBBNB$597.07+1.89%

Notizie Correlate

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsThe Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.NewsUS Sanctions Iran’s Nobitex Crypto Exchange Over Sanctions EvasionBlockchain.News

Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
  • A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:
  • Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.
  • Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.