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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

One-OffGeopoliticaMiddle East6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm) 100%
In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori

92

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 minuti fa

6 mag 26, 22:3731 dic 26, 23:37

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm)
100%

Esito scelto

7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)99%

Regole

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,604.58+2.36%EthereumETH$1,650.76+1.70%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.77%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%BNBBNB$594.25+1.58%

Notizie Correlate

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsThe Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.NewsUS Sanctions Iran’s Nobitex Crypto Exchange Over Sanctions EvasionBlockchain.News

Regole

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.