Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PoliticaOne-OffGeopoliticaMiddle EastUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 54.9%
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64
Tipo di domanda
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
28 feb 26, 16:48 UTC1 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
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Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 55% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria