Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Politica USAGeopoliticaOne-OffMedio Oriente10g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 17:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 94%
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Aggiornato 49 minuti fa
In ritardo3 apr 26, 17:21 UTC5 nov 26, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026:
- Formal agreement: A ceasefire, armistice, or peace agreement is signed by authorized representatives of both the US and Iranian governments.
- Operational cessation: Active military operations (airstrikes, ground combat, naval engagements) between US and Iranian forces have ceased for 14 or more consecutive days.
- Both conditions must be confirmed by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, or NYT.
- Resolves NO if active hostilities are ongoing or no formal agreement exists as of November 3, 2026.
- Context: The US-Israel war against Iran began February 28, 2026.
