Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneGeopoliticaElezioni di metà mandato USA 20263m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 49.2%In testa tra 10 esiti
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto21 gen 25, 06:12 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
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Earlier this week, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider those who win their races (whether incumbent or not).
- 2024's top performers were Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL) at 9.93, Angus King (I/D|ME-SEN) at 9.78, and Amy Klobuchar (D|MN-SEN) at 8.47.
- Feel free to add your own answers, however please follow the format established and do not add any duplicates.
- 2024 House WAR
