PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneProbabilità implicita attualeDecember 31 68%In testa tra 17 esiti
Qualita del mercato
89 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
4,5 Mln €
Liquidità
2,1 Mln €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
3.6% / 3.8%
Spread
5.6%
Spread moderatoVariazione 7g
-9.8%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
8 apr 26, 16:2331 dic 26, 0:00
Trend
Esito scelto
December 3168%
Mercati Correlati
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
822,9K €June 30: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
716,8K €Sì: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
307,5K €July 31: 54%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,6K €Sì: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?
780,3 €Before July: 8%
KALSHI
KALSHIWhen will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
173,2 €By 2026-04-15: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSAttivi in questi argomenti
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.